Boomer populations are growing rapidly everywhere, especially in economically dynamic areas.
A study released by the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. confirms what demographers have long been predicting: The rise of boomer populations will create new demands on national and local agencies to create and maintain extensive social-support systems and adequate public policies. The “age wave” or “age tsunami,” as some prefer to call it, is clearly cresting and will flood every dimension of society. Wall Street and Madison Avenue are gearing up for the changes. How about the church? Is yours ready to capture the incredible ministry opportunities awaiting us in the 21st century?
Here are some of the findings based on an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and reported by William Frey, Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution:
The aging of the baby boom generation makes pre-seniors this decade’s fastest growing age group, expanding nearly 50 percent in size from 2000 to 2010. This group will be more highly educated, have more professional women, and exhibit more household diversity than previous generations entering traditional retirement age.
Pre-senior populations are growing rapidly everywhere, especially in economically dynamic Sun Belt areas previously known for their youth, such as Las Vegas, Austin, Atlanta, and Dallas. Mobile boomers wish to live near both work and natural amenities as they approach retirement age.
The World War II generation currently entering its senior years is growing fastest in the Intermountain West and South Atlantic states, especially suburban areas. These high-growth areas tend to have younger, higher-income, more highly-educated senior populations. Despite their low rates of senior growth, northern states like Pennsylvania, Iowa, and North Dakota exhibit some of the nation’s highest senior population shares due to low immigration and past out-migration of their younger residents.
In states where senior populations will grow fastest over the next 35 years, “aging in place” rather than migration will drive this growth. In Georgia, for instance, the senior population will increase by more than 40 percent from 2010 to 2020 due to the aging of existing residents, versus less than 3 percent due to migration.
Projected boomer aging will cause the suburbs of New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Los Angeles to become considerably “older” than the cities themselves by 2040. Seniors and pre-seniors moving from cities to suburbs outnumber those moving in the opposite direction; those moving into cities are on average more highly educated, more affluent, and less likely to be married than their suburbanizing counterparts.
According to Frey, “Today’s seniors and pre-seniors are upending traditional notions of how and where Americans spend their later years.” He advocates that local governments consider “The rise of boomer populations in suburban and Sun Belt locations will create new demand for senior-oriented housing and amenities. As older populations age in place, however — especially in the suburbs of slower-growing metropolitan areas — public policies must respond to the new stresses they will exert on health, transportation, and social support systems.” *
The impact on the church’s ministry is profound. As you plan for ministry with boomers and beyond, it is important to consider:
What is the demographic of your particular community? Is your area attracting a migration of boomers? Are they moving there for employment, recreation, affordability? What is the socio-economic status of pre-seniors and seniors in your area? Are they highly educated? Professionals? Ethnically diverse? Have you done a thorough inventory of your community, its population, current services, housing opportunities for seniors, and long-term health care providers?
What are the needs of boomers and beyond in your area? Are people aging in place and requiring social support services? Where will your church need to pick up the slack left from overburdened social service and health care systems?
Do you have a plan for reaching midlife and older adults with the gospel?
The opportunities are abundant. The potential is exciting! Pray, for the harvest is literally turning white and ready for harvesting!
*For the complete report, “Mapping the Growth of Older America” by William Frey, visit: www.brookings.edu/views/articles/20075frey.htm
Written by Leona Bergstrom, 2007. Research findings by William Frey are taken from the report “Mapping the Growth of Older America: Seniors and Boomers in the Early 21st Century,” The Brookings Institution Living Cities Census Series. For more information contact William Frey at wfrey@brookings.edu.
